Journal Article

Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases

Duffy, P. B., Field, C.B., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Doney, S. C., Dutton, Z., Goodman, S., Heinzerling, L., Hsiang, S., Lobell, D. B., Mickley, L. J., Myers, S., Natali, S. M., Parmesan, C., Tierney, S., Williams, A. P. Published Online DOI: 10.1126/science.aat5982

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Abstract

We assess scientific evidence that has emerged since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s 2009 Endangerment Finding for six well-mixed greenhouse gases, and find that this new evidence lends increased support to the conclusion that these gases pose a danger to public health and welfare. Newly available evidence about a wide range of observed and projected impacts strengthens the association between risk of some of these impacts and anthropogenic climate change; indicates that some impacts or combinations of impacts have the potential to be more severe than previously understood; and identifies substantial risk of additional impacts through processes and pathways not considered in the endangerment finding. This research, co-authored by Lab co-director Solomon Hsiang of the University of California’s Goldman School, points to evidence from a number of academic contributions by members of our research team.

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Social and economic impacts of climate

Tamma A. Carleton & Solomon M. Hsiang, (2016). Social and economic impacts of climate. Science.

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research has begun to illuminate key linkages in the coupling of these complex natural and human systems, uncovering notable effects of climate on health, agriculture, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics.
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Opportunities for Advances in Climate Change Economics

M. Burke, M. Craxton, C. D. Kolstad, C. Onda, H. Allcott, E. Baker, L. Barrage,  R. Carson, K. Gillingham, J. Graff-Zivin, M. Greenstone, S. Hallegatte, W. M. Hanemann, G. Heal, S. Hsiang, B. Jones, D. L. Kelly, R. Kopp, M. Kotchen, R. Mendelsohn, K. Meng, G. Metcalf, J. Moreno-Cruz, R. Pindyck, S. Rose, I. Rudik, J. Stock, R. S. J. Tol, “Opportunities for Advances in Climate Change Economics,”  Science, 2016, 352(6283): 292-3.

There have been dramatic advances in understanding the physical science of climate change, facilitated by substantial and reliable research support. Some advances have been made in understanding and formalizing climate-economy linkages, but knowledge gaps remain. Three areas where research progress on climate economics is both sorely needed, in light of policy relevance, and possible within the next few years given appropriate funding: (i) refining the social cost of carbon (SCC), (ii) improving understanding of the consequences of particular policies, and (iii) better understanding of the economic impacts and policy choices in developing economies.
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American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks in the United States

Solomon Hsiang, Robert Kopp, Amir Jina, Michael Delgado, James Rising, Shashank Mohan, Robert Muir-Wood, D. J. Rasmussen, Michael Mastrandrea, Paul Wilson, Kate Larsen and Trevor Houser (2014). American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks in the United States.

The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) provides a groundbreaking new analysis of climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. By linking state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face.
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Estimating Economic Damage from Climate Change in the United States

Hsiang, S., Kopp, R.E., Jina, A., Rising, J., Delgado M., Mohan, S., Rasmussen, D.J., Muir-Wood, R., Wilson, P., Oppenheimer, M., Larsen, K., and Houser, T. (2017). Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science. doi:10.1126/science.aal4369

Spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change.
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