InsightsNovember 10, 2022

Updated Impact Map Data Provides a Detailed View of Future Temperature Trends, Based on Latest Climate Science Advancements

A much-anticipated update of the Climate Impact Lab’s popular Impact Map offers users high-resolution projections for how the number of extreme heat days will multiply over the course of the century, summer and winter temperature trends, and more, all based on the best science from the World Climate Research Programme’s Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
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Quality and detailed climate information is key to unlocking a more resilient future for communities around the world. The new temperature data update to our dynamic Impact Map allows users to develop a vastly deeper understanding of how global greenhouse gas emissions pathways will translate into future changes at a local level.  Based on an analysis of our open and freely available Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR) dataset, released this spring on the Microsoft Planetary Computer, the projections correspond to the latest global climate model simulations prepared as part of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report.
The Impact Map offers an accessible way for the public to learn how extreme heat, days below freezing, average annual temperatures, and seasonal trends are likely to unfold in coming decades and beyond, all based on the latest socioeconomic and emissions scenarios developed by global research teams. Users can explore median, 1-in-20 high, and 1-in-20 low probability projections along three pathways:
  • SSP2-4.5: a moderate emissions scenario that aligns with countries meeting their Paris Agreement commitments to keep warming below 2 degrees Celsius
  • SSP3-7.0: a moderate-high emissions scenario that represents global carbon emissions continuing to rise every year throughout the 21st century 
  • SSP5-8.5: a very high emissions scenario that represents a worst-case outcome of continued fossil-fueled development in which carbon dioxide emissions triple by 2075
Each step in our data processing has been carefully documented, improving the transparency of the information. This latest update, which includes free downloadable datasets, ensures accurate and actionable climate information is available to the public. 
Our future research priorities include updating all of the Climate Impact Lab sector-specific impact projections, including the Mortality and Energy costs layers currently available on the Impacts Map, to be consistent with CMIP6 climate scenarios. By providing quantified information on how temperature changes will affect multiple dimensions of our economy and human welfare, we provide a granular, evidence-based perspective on the future costs of climate change. Visit our Estimating Climate Change Damages video series for more information. 
The Climate Impact Lab extends its sincere gratitude to The Rockefeller Foundation for its support of this project.
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Featured Journal Article Read
Global downscaled projections for climate impacts research (GDPCIR): Preserving extremes for modeling future climate impacts
Gergel, D. R., Malevich, S. B., McCusker, K. E., Tenezakis, E., Delgado, M. T., Fish, M. A., and Kopp, R. E.: Global downscaled projections for climate impacts research (GDPCIR): preserving extremes for modeling future climate impacts, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1513, 2023.
Global climate models are important tools for understanding the climate system and how it is projected to evolve under scenario-driven emissions pathways. Their output is widely used in climate impacts research for modeling the current and future effects of climate change. However, climate model output remains coarse in relation to the high-resolution climate data needed for climate impacts studies, and it also exhibits biases relative to observational data. Treatment of the distribution tails is a key challenge in existing downscaled climate datasets available at a global scale; many of these datasets used quantile mapping techniques that were known to dampen or amplify trends in the tails. In this study, we apply the trend-preserving Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) bias-adjustment method (Cannon et al., 2015) and develop a new downscaling method called the Quantile-Preserving Localized-Analog Downscaling (QPLAD) method that also preserves trends in the distribution tails. The output dataset of this study is the Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR), a global, daily, 0.25° horizontal-resolution product which is publicly hosted on Microsoft AI for Earth’s Planetary Computer.

Published January 16, 2023

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