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Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment
Bamber, Jonathan L., Michael Oppenheimer, Robert E. Kopp, Willy P. Aspinall, and Roger M. Cooke. “Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2019): 201817205.
Future sea level rise (SLR) poses serious threats to the viability of coastal communities, but continues to be challenging to project using deterministic modeling approaches. Nonetheless, adaptation strategies urgently require quantification of future SLR uncertainties, particularly upper-end estimates. Structured expert judgement (SEJ) has proved a valuable approach for similar problems. Our findings, using SEJ, produce probability distributions with long upper tails that are influenced by interdependencies between processes and ice sheets. We find that a global total SLR exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario. This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Fifth Assessment Report.
Published May 20, 2019Read