Climate change will increase the importance of energy as a tool for adaptation. Climate Impact Lab (CIL) research indicates that climate-driven changes in temperature could contribute to approximately 430,000 additional deaths annually by 2050 compared to historical conditions. How many of those lives can be saved largely depends on access to energy, particularly the electricity needed for cooling. And yet, this report shows that many of the regions of the world most impacted also lack the energy needed to adapt—with 10 times more deaths occurring in poor countries by 2050 than in wealthier countries, according to Lab research.
Public health risks from climate change will be amplified by the unequal ability to use energy to adapt. This report identifies the regions around the world where energy consumption needed for climate adaptation will fall short, using CIL projections of climate-related changes in the consumption of electricity and heating fuels in 2050. Communities projected to lack sufficient growth in electricity consumption for cooling will be particularly vulnerable. Countries, communities, and funders who are focused on finding ways to save the greatest number of lives will increasingly need to consider reforms to electricity markets that allow more people to consume enough electricity to power cooling technologies, while also identifying adaptation measures that are less dependent on electricity-driven cooling.
Key Take Aways
Low-income countries will be the least able to increase electricity use to adapt to a warmer world.
Globally, annual electricity consumption is projected to increase by 0.17 GJ per capita (6%) on average by 2050, with some areas seeing an increase of as much as 3.3 GJ per capita. This increase is driven by both an increase in the need for cooling with climate change and an increase in the ability to pay for that increase
due to rising incomes.
CIL research finds that only the world’s richest populations currently have the resources and stable energy markets needed to power cooling. But as the climate warms, many middle-income countries will gain access to electricity. Today’s middle-income countries are projected to increase consumption by 0.21 GJ per capita on average. That’s seven times the increase low-income countries will experience—0.03 GJ per capita on average. The increase in electricity consumption in low-income countries is equivalent to the amount of electricity needed to power just a single LED bulb for four months. Critically, many of these low-income countries projected to see so little increase in electricity access are the same countries most exposed and vulnerable to extreme heat. This puts lives at risk and underscores the inequities of status quo adaptation capacity.
Further underscoring the inequality, wealthy countries like those in North America, Europe and parts of Asia will be the ones to benefit from less need for heating fuels as the world warms. Today’s high-income countries are projected to see average declines in heating fuels consumption of 1.6 GJ per capita—eight times larger than the 0.2 GJ per capita decline projected for low-income countries. That amount of decreased energy use in wealthy countries would save a person in Europe €53 ($62) on their current natural gas bill and heat an average midwestern U.S. household for 3 days in the winter, demonstrating that even in these countries where climate change will have benefits, those benefits will be relatively modest.
Those living in regions with little increase in electricity consumption have the highest risk of dying from the heat.
Comparing projections of electricity consumption with projections of temperature-related mortality reveals a striking pattern. Wealthy communities will increase their use of electricity for cooling, while poor communities will not and will see significantly more heat-related deaths. We refer to this as the Mortality-Cooling Trap: countries experiencing the largest increases in heat-related mortality are often projected to see only very small increases in electricity consumption. As defined in the report, there are 18 countries caught in the heart of the Mortality- Cooling Trap. All of these are either low-income or lower middle-income today. Most are located in northern sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad), while the remainder are concentrated in Southern Asia (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar). More than 676 million people in these countries are projected to live in areas with significant increases in heat-related deaths and yet very low changes in electricity consumption (MCT Regions). As a result, approximately 377,000 lives are projected to be lost each year starting in 2050 due to warmer temperatures in Mortality-Cooling Trapped countries.
Adaptation measures beyond access to electricity will be critical to save lives.
These findings underscore a central challenge for adaptation planning: More electricity consumption is necessary to save lives, but this requires improvements in the functioning of electricity markets and higher incomes so people can afford electricity. Importantly, this means that electricity market reforms, which are not usually considered a form of climate adaptation, should become a key part of the adaptation toolbox. In some places, other adaptation measures will be needed. Policymakers and funders can look to measures such as heat early warning systems, heat action plans, urban greening, expanded healthcare access, and targeted social protection programs as options to improve the welfare of vulnerable communities but overall, these interventions still need more rigorous testing to establish their efficacy. More information about approaches that have been proven to be effective is available in the CIL Adaptation Inventory.
