By Laura Paddison
Nearly half a million people across the world could lose their lives by February due to El Niño-driven extreme heat, according to a sobering new report.
El Niño, a natural climate pattern which typically ramps up global temperature, has now crossed into super-sized territory and is on its way to becoming record-breakingly strong.
Combined with the global warming the planet is already experiencing from fossil fuel pollution, the heat consequences could be devastating, according to the analysis from the Climate Impact Lab, a team of scientists, economists and data engineers headquartered at the University of Chicago, and published Wednesday.
Heat is the most deadly form of extreme weather — although heat deaths are not well-tracked, even in rich nations. The report estimates the heat from El Niño could take 451,000 lives between June 2026, when it arrived, and February 2027. Those deaths would be in addition to the usual number of heat-related deaths.
The researchers believe this number is likely to rise — El Nino is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere spring, meaning its heat impacts will linger into the summer months.
The deaths from extreme heat would also come in addition to those expected from other El Niño-fueled extreme weather, including fires, floods and droughts, according to the report.
