By Laura Paddison
Rising global temperatures are set to devastate food crops across the world, with particularly alarming impacts projected for the United States, where production of key crops could plummet 50% by the end of the century, according to a sweeping new analysis.
Of the many impacts of the fossil fuel-driven climate crisis, damage to the global food system is one of the most terrifying. But the overall impact of climate change on crops — and how much it can be offset by farmers’ adaptations — has been hard to establish and hotly debated.
The new analysis, eight years in the making, is “the first attempt to really tackle both of those problems,” said Solomon Hsiang, a study author and professor of global environmental policy at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.
The scientists analyzed six crops — maize, soybeans, rice, wheat, cassava and sorghum — in more than 12,000 regions across 54 countries. Together, these crops provide more than two thirds of humanity’s calories.
They also measured how real-world farmers are adapting to climate change, from changing crop varieties to adjusting irrigation, to calculate the overall impact of global warming.
Their findings are stark. Every 1 degree Celsius the world warms above pre-industrial levels will drag down global food production by an average of 120 calories per person per day, according to the study, published Wednesday in Nature.
