Agriculture

The agricultural sector’s central role in rural and local economies as well as its importance for human health and security, make understanding the risks posed by climate change important not only for ensuring food security, but for farmer livelihoods, rural communities, and the global economy as a whole.

Extremes in local and regional weather patterns and climate variability have disrupted agricultural production in the past. And climate-related temperature rise has already affected crop yields in many regions of the world, a trend that is projected to continue. Rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns will affect productivity through altered water requirements and water-use efficiency of most crops. Increasing climate variability and more frequent disruptions from extreme events are projected to increase price volatility for agricultural commodities, and reduce food quality. The differential effect of these various factors will lead to regional production effects that alter regional competitiveness, potentially altering the agricultural landscape significantly by mid-century.

Climate-related temperature rise has already affected crop yields in many regions of the world

Farmers worldwide have developed production practices and strategies appropriate for their local conditions, taking into account long-term historical trends as well as the risks of short-term variability.  Despite these advances, production and prices remain highly dependent on climate, making the sector particularly vulnerable. The agricultural community is familiar with making decisions in the face of uncertainty, which arise not just due to variability in weather patterns, but also from fluctuations in a whole host of other factors including trade dynamics, shifts in market demands and consumer preferences, evolution of agricultural technologies, and ever-changing local and national policies. Risk-based decision-making must take each of these factors into account. Managing the risks associated with climate change will require the integration of the potential risks of climate on agricultural productivity and prices into decision-making by those involved in the full value chain of agricultural production.