by Aathira Perinchery
Heatwaves in India have increased in intensity and frequency over the last 26 years due to global warming, according to a recent study published in the journal Scientific Reports. While this is not new – existing research has shown this before – the study also found that the extent of heat hotspots in the country has increased during these years by 1.5 times. Parts of western India, the southeastern coast and the Indo-Gangetic Plain are among the areas most at risk in terms of health impacts on people.
Recent research predicts that deaths caused by intense heat are likely to increase in the country too. In March, a global report predicted that with current levels of warming caused by climate change, parts of northwestern and central India could witness as many as 24 deaths per every 1 lakh due to hotter temperatures.
More heatwaves, and longer ones
The India Meteorological Department defines heatwaves as periods of unusually high temperatures that occur in an area when compared to what is normally expected over the region during that time. A heatwave is said to occur over a region if the maximum temperature goes above 45 Degrees Celsius, or when temperatures increase from between 4.5 and 6.4 Degrees Celsius above the normal. A severe heatwave is said to occur when maximum temperatures exceed 47 Degrees Celsius, or rises above normal levels by 6.4 Degrees Celsius and higher…
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Increase in temperature-related deaths in India
Hotter temperatures can be fatal – and more so in specific parts of India.
According to a recent report published in March by the Climate Impact Lab in the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, US, global climate change will increase the number of premature deaths due to hotter temperatures. It found that the likelihood that a person will die due to a warmer climate depends on where they live – in hotter or cooler climes. Cooler regions (mid-to-high latitudes) across the world are projected to see a decrease in deaths due to extreme cold, while hotter regions (lower-latitudes) such as northern Africa, West Asia, and southwest Asia will likely see more deaths. And this impact of climate change is also highly unequal: more than 90% of deaths due to hotter temperatures will occur in low- and middle-income countries.
The report predicts that ten times more people will likely die each year in lower-income countries (about 3,91,000 people) than in higher-income countries (about 39,000 people) due to shifting temperatures, despite being expected to have roughly equal populations. The country of Niger in Africa is likely to be hardest hit, as it could witness around 60 deaths per 1 lakh people.
Compared to that, India’s predicted country-level average change in mortality rate is not too high: 2.4 deaths per 1,00,000 people. However, this value belies extremes. For instance, the regions with the largest increase in projected temperature-related mortality are northwest and north-central India. These regions could witness around 23-25 additional deaths per every 1 lakh people, and this change would be on par with the current death rates for tuberculosis and diabetes in India, the report noted.
Karanpur in Rajasthan could witness the largest increase in temperature-caused deaths: 26 deaths out of every 1 lakh. Regions with the largest decrease in projected temperature-related mortality are in the southwest, east, and extreme north (such as Kashmir).
“In general, the areas projected to be most negatively impacted (i.e., largest increases in temperature-related mortality) tend to be those that are already among the hottest and are projected to see increases in the frequency of extreme heat,” Emily Grover-Kopec, one of the authors of the report, told The Wire. “This is particularly true for the northwest (e.g., Punjab, western Rajasthan).”
Conversely, the areas projected to see the most significant decreases in temperature-related mortality tend to be the coolest, particularly those in the extreme north, Grover-Kopec added. “Those areas are projected to see a decrease in temperature-related mortality overall, driven by fewer cold-related deaths. This dynamic plays a key role in the range of projections across India.”
According to the report, 95 cities across Asia will experience an increase in temperature-related mortality of at least 10 deaths per 1 lakh; and that 56 of these cities are in China. Amritsar, the second-largest city of Punjab is part of this list, with an expected 13 deaths per every 1 lakh due to intense heat.
