Climate poses big threat to crop production, new study says
Axios summarizes new Climate Impact Lab research about the impacts of climate change on crop production.
Axios
/
June 20, 2025
By Ben Geman
Adaptation can’t outrun climate change, and rich farming nations — including the U.S. — face jeopardy despite their resources, according to a major new paper on global warming and crop production.
Why it matters: It’s the first look at climate effects on staple crops to weigh farmers’ “real-world adaptation measures” and fold them into projections of future damage, a summary states.
The Nature paper projects losses for all staples analyzed except rice, though there’s lots of regional variation.
The big picture: The paper estimates that for every 1°C of temperature rise, global food production capacity falls by 120 calories per day per person.
“If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that’s basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast,” said co-author Solomon Hsiang, a Stanford environmental policy professor, in a statement.
Hot and relatively low-income regions are showing more adaptation to date than wealthier breadbaskets in more moderate climates. That’s one reason future risks are so high.
State of play: The authors analyze over 12,600 regions in 54 countries, looking at six staple crops — corn, soybeans, rice, wheat, cassava and sorghum.
It’s “one of the most comprehensive samples of subnational crop yields ever assembled,” the study states.
It sees future gains in some areas, but declines on a global basis for most crops.
Threat level: One reason for the conclusions? Realism.
A clear-eyed look at how farming evolves is needed, the paper states, comparing its work to prior models that assume optimal responses.
In reality, financial constraints, market failures, human error and more influence farming.
