Adaptation roadmap: When heat becomes death sentence for the poor

By Greg Odogwu

There is a quiet injustice unfolding in the world. One that does not make as much noise as war, does not command the urgency of elections, and yet may claim more lives than both. It is hot. This is not the ordinary heat Nigerians joke about seasonally, nor the familiar discomfort of a hot afternoon in Jalingo or Abakaliki. It is something more insidious: heat as a killer, intensified by climate change, and distributed along the harsh lines of global inequality.

A recent analysis by the Climate Impact Lab delivers a verdict that should unsettle every policymaker in Nigeria: by mid-century, about 90 per cent of deaths linked to rising temperatures will occur in low- and middle-income countries. Let that sink in. Ninety per cent – not because these countries are naturally hotter. Not because their people are biologically weaker. But because they are poorer. Thus, it has become clear that in the age of climate change, heat will not kill randomly – it will kill selectively.

“This report uncovers one of climate change’s cruellest ironies—it is projected to kill millions of people in the countries that have generally done the least to cause it. Further, their relatively low income levels mean that they are not as well-positioned as people in rich countries to confront the new and unfolding risks from climate change,” says Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the director of the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth and Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago. “In this report, we’ve identified the regions around the world where climate adaptation investments can save the most lives.”

The findings from the new report underscore the inequality of climate change. The issue is not only that warmer regions are set to experience higher mortality than cooler ones, but also that the greatest impacts are projected to fall on regions that are both hotter and poorer, as they have fewer resources for adaptation. For example, the country of Burkina Faso in West Africa is projected to experience double the number of deaths from heat than the wealthier country of Kuwait in the Middle East, despite their similar climates. Overall, ten times more people are projected to die from the heat in poor countries than in rich countries by 2050.

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