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Updating the United States Government’s Social Cost of Carbon

Carleton, Tamma and Greenstone, Michael, Updating the United States Government’s Social Cost of Carbon (January 14, 2021). University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2021-04, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3764255

This paper outlines a two-step process to return the United States government’s Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) to the frontier of economics and climate science.
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Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5

Rising, J., Devineni, N. Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5. Nat Commun 11, 4991 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18725-w

A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation.
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The Evolving Distribution of Relative Humidity Conditional Upon Daily Maximum Temperature in a Warming Climate

Yuan, J., Stein, M. L., & Kopp, R. E. (2020). The evolving distribution of relative humidity conditional upon daily maximum temperature in a warming climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD032100. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032100

The impacts of heat waves in a warming climate depend not only on changing temperatures but also on changing humidity. This study investigates the long‐term evolution of summertime humidity and daily maximum temperature near four U.S. cities, New York City, Chicago, Phoenix, and New Orleans, under a high‐emissions pathway. The results suggest that, despite a modest decrease in median relative humidity, heat stress--a measure of both humidity and temperature--will increase faster than temperature projections alone would indicate.
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Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits

Carleton, Tamma and Jina, Amir and Delgado, Michael and Greenstone, Michael and Houser, Trevor and Hsiang, Solomon and Hultgren, Andrew and Kopp, Robert E. and McCusker, Kelly and Nath, Ishan and Rising, James and Rode, Ashwin and Seo, Hee Kwon and and Viaene, Arvid and Yuan, Jiacan and Zhang, Alice Tianbo, Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits (Aug. 3, 2020). National Bureau of Economics Working Paper No. 27599, Available at NBER: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27599

This paper estimates that the release of an additional ton of carbon dioxide today will cause mean damages to global mortality risk valued at $36.6 under a high emissions scenario and $17.1 under a moderate scenario, using a 2% discount rate that is justified by US Treasury rates over the last two decades.
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