Conflict

Cutting-edge research by the Climate Impact Lab has identified ways in which changes to climatic conditions such as abnormally warm summers, droughts, and floods can increase the risk of conflict. 

Modern data science and econometrics are rapidly providing new insights into the myriad ways that environmental conditions affect human well-being around the world. In particular, cutting-edge research has identified ways in which changes to climatic conditions such as abnormally warm summers, droughts, and floods can increase the risk of conflict. 
Climate’s influence over a range of conflict outcomes, from property crime to murder, rape, and large-scale civil war, has been robustly demonstrated in a rapidly-growing body of empirical research. High temperatures are shown to be particularly damaging, elevating the risk of nearly all crime and conflict outcomes studied throughout the globe. The influence of temperature on conflict in the historical record can be leveraged to generate projections of future conflict under a range of potential climate futures. 

While political dynamics and a history of conflict are the primary predictors of future conflict risk, climatic factors are “threat multipliers,” which can amplify pre-existing patterns of conflict. 

However, many of the risks imposed by the climate-conflict relationship are immediately critical, regardless of the path climate policy takes in the coming decades. Short-term droughts can induce famine and conflict over scarce resources in agriculturally-dependent economies, high summer temperatures can raise murder rates in cities throughout the United States, and fluctuations in the El Nino Southern Oscillation can raise conflict risks throughout the tropics. 
The Climate Impact Lab team is harnessing advances in climate and data science and combining them with real-time seasonal climate projections to improve the planning and decision-making of conflict prevention, international aid and security communities. Humanitarian organizations, crisis prevention groups and government security and aid organizations need to identify signs of increased conflict risk early to be effective in their work. While political dynamics and a history of conflict are the primary predictors of future conflict risk, climatic factors are threat multipliers,” which can amplify pre-existing patterns of conflict.