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Agriculture

Extremes in local and regional weather patterns and climate variability have disrupted agricultural production in the past; climate-related temperature rise is expected to increasingly affect crop yields in many regions of the world.

The agricultural sector’s central role in rural and local economies as well as its importance for human health and security, make understanding the risks posed by climate change important not only for ensuring food security, but for farmer livelihoods, rural communities, and the global economy as a whole. 
Extremes in local and regional weather patterns and climate variability have disrupted agricultural production in the past. And climate-related temperature rise has already affected crop yields in many regions of the world, a trend that is projected to continue. Rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns will affect productivity through altered water requirements and water-use efficiency of most crops. Increasing climate variability and more frequent disruptions from extreme events are projected to increase price volatility for agricultural commodities, and reduce food quality. The differential effect of these various factors will lead to regional production effects that alter regional competitiveness, potentially altering the agricultural landscape significantly by mid-century.

Climate-related temperature rise has already affected crop yields in many regions of the world

Farmers worldwide have developed production practices and strategies appropriate for their local conditions, taking into account long-term historical trends as well as the risks of short-term variability.  Despite these advances, production and prices remain highly dependent on climate, making the sector particularly vulnerable. The agricultural community is familiar with making decisions in the face of uncertainty, which arise not just due to variability in weather patterns, but also from fluctuations in a whole host of other factors including trade dynamics, shifts in market demands and consumer preferences, evolution of agricultural technologies, and ever-changing local and national policies. Risk-based decision-making must take each of these factors into account. Managing the risks associated with climate change will require the integration of the potential risks of climate on agricultural productivity and prices into decision-making by those involved in the full value chain of agricultural production.
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Crop-damaging temperatures increase suicide rates in India

 

Tamma A. Carleton,  Crop-damaging temperatures increase suicide rates in India, PNAS, August 15, 2017. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1701354114.

 

Warming temperatures over the last 30 years is responsible for 59,300 suicides in India, accounting for nearly 7% of the doubling in suicide rates over that period.
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Agriculture Research

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Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5

Rising, J., Devineni, N. Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5. Nat Commun 11, 4991 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18725-w

A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation.
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Climate Change: Information on Potential Economic Effects Could Help Guide Federal Efforts to Reduce Fiscal Exposure

U.S. Government Accountability Office

The GAO's new report draws heavily from two national-scale studies: one from the EPA and the other is the American Climate Prospectus, authored by Climate Impact Lab members. The federal auditors found that the federal government has not undertaken strategic government-wide planning to manage climate risks by using information on the potential economic effects of climate change to identify significant risks and craft appropriate federal responses.
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Estimating Economic Damage from Climate Change in the United States

Hsiang, S., Kopp, R.E., Jina, A., Rising, J., Delgado M., Mohan, S., Rasmussen, D.J., Muir-Wood, R., Wilson, P., Oppenheimer, M., Larsen, K., and Houser, T. (2017). Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Science. doi:10.1126/science.aal4369

Spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change.
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Social and economic impacts of climate

Tamma A. Carleton & Solomon M. Hsiang, (2016). Social and economic impacts of climate. Science.

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research has begun to illuminate key linkages in the coupling of these complex natural and human systems, uncovering notable effects of climate on health, agriculture, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics.
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Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus

Houser, T., Hsiang, S., Kopp, R.E., Larsen, K., Delgado, M., Jina, A., Mastrandrea, M., Mohan, S., Muir-Wood, R., Rasmussen, D.J., Rising, J. and P. Wilson. (2015). Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus. New York, NY: Columbia University Press.

Combines the latest climate models, state-of-the-art econometric research on human responses to climate, and cutting-edge private-sector risk-assessment tools to craft a game-changing profile of the economic risks of climate change in the United States.
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American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks in the United States

Solomon Hsiang, Robert Kopp, Amir Jina, Michael Delgado, James Rising, Shashank Mohan, Robert Muir-Wood, D. J. Rasmussen, Michael Mastrandrea, Paul Wilson, Kate Larsen and Trevor Houser (2014). American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks in the United States.

The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) provides a groundbreaking new analysis of climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. By linking state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face.
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